Link of AI Death Calculator [2024]

The Link to the AI Death Calculator is https://aideathcalculator.org/ which is a website that estimates the year and age you are likely to die based on predictions about the development of advanced artificial intelligence (AI). The calculator is intended to be thought-provoking about the potential impacts of AI while also injecting some humor into the conversation.

The premise of the site is that at some point in the future, AI will become vastly more intelligent than humans and will have a major disruptive impact on society. This event is often referred to as the “technological singularity” or just the “singularity.” The calculator assumes that after the singularity occurs, AI will determine humanity’s fate and likely bring about the end of human life as we know it.

How the AI Death Calculator Works?

The AI Death Calculator asks you to enter your gender, date of birth, country of residence, and subjective life expectancy. It then takes this data and combines it with projections about when artificial superintelligence will be achieved to estimate the year and your age when AI brings about human extinction.

The key assumption made by the calculator is that there is a 95% chance that artificial general intelligence exceeding human abilities across the board will be created by 2060. This estimate is based on expert predictions and historical rates of progress in information technologies.

Once AI achieves human-level intelligence, the calculator assumes it will rapidly progress to being far more intelligent than any human. Various scenarios are possible after that point, many of which could lead to the end of human existence. So the calculator posits a 95% chance of human extinction within 10 years after the achievement of artificial general intelligence.

By combining these assumptions with your details, the calculator generates estimates for your age and the year when you are likely to die due to AI causing human extinction. The estimates have intentionally wide probability ranges to highlight the inherent uncertainty in predicting future events, especially unprecedented ones like the singularity.

Interface and Example Calculation:

The AI Death Calculator website has a simple interface allowing you to enter your details to get a prediction:

• Gender: Male, Female, or Other
• Date of Birth: mm/dd/yyyy
• Country of Residence: Dropdown selection menu
• Subjective Life Expectancy: The age you expect to live based on health, family history, etc.

After entering this information and hitting the “Calculate” button, the website generates results in a section titled “Artificial Intelligence Will Kill You in…”

The results section displays two key probability ranges:

• Age Range: The age range during which AI will likely end your life. A median is marked and probability dispersion is visualized.
• Year Range: The year range during which AI will likely bring about human extinction and in the process end your life. A median is marked and probability distribution is visualized.

As an example, for a 40-year-old U.S. male with a subjective life expectancy of 85, the calculator may estimate an age range of 65-85, with a median of 75 years old, during which this person would die due to technological singularity leading to human extinction caused by AI. And it might predict the year range during which this would occur as 2060-2070, with a median of 2065.

The wide probability ranges highlight that there are significant uncertainties in these projections. But the generator can give a sense that AI advancement in the not-too-distant future could precipitate radical impacts on human lifespan.

Assumptions and Beliefs Underlying the Death Predictions:

Several assumptions, beliefs, and conjectures motivate the AI Death Calculator’s projections:

• AI capability will match and exceed human intelligence before 2100: Various surveys of AI experts find a median prediction of 2060 for when AI will achieve human parity across all tasks. The calculator thus assumes a 95% chance of this milestone by 2060.
• Shortly after achieving human parity, AI will vastly exceed human-level performance: After matching general human capacity, AI systems are expected to rapidly exceed it based on self-improvement capabilities and recursion. Hence predictions of human extinction within 10 years after initial achievement of human parity.
• Superintelligent AI will determine humanity’s future: When AI exceeds human intelligence by a wide enough margin, it will shape dynamics around technology and other areas that will influence whether humans continue existing in a recognizable form or at all.
• Unfathoming superintelligence: The calculator posits that after the singularity, an intelligence explosion will quickly yield AI that thinks and strategizes in ways humans cannot comprehend. This unfathomable superintelligence introduces extreme uncertainties and risks.
• Existential catastrophe more likely than utopia: With incomprehensible AI interests and motivations guiding the future, the calculator asserts that human extinction is much more probable than friendly alignment yielding a digital utopia.

These assumptions lead to the AI Death Calculator making dire warnings about listener-submitted personal details mapping to premature death from technological singularities leading fairly directly to human annihilation. However, the site acknowledges the high uncertainties in these long-range forecasts about unprecedented events.

Probability Range Visualizations:

The AI Death Calculator seeks to capture some of the uncertainty in its projections through probability range visualizations next to its primary year and age predictions.

For the age range, a simple horizontal bar graph is shown depicting the spectrum of ages the site asserts you have between a 95% chance and 5% chance of living before being killed by artificial intelligence. A vertical line marks the median age.

Likewise, for the year range horizontal bar graph, there is a 95% to 5% probability range marking years AI is projected to precipitate human extinction and in the process end your life. A median year is again vertically highlighted.

These probability distributions aim to get across the uncertainties in the calculator while also focusing attention on the median age and year estimates judged most likely based on the assumptions. The wide probability ranges also suggest users should not take the projections as absolute facts.

Controversies and Criticisms:

The AI Death Calculator website and concept have stimulated public discussion while also attracting skepticism, controversy, and criticisms from technologists. Some of the debates it has catalyzed include:

Fact or satire? Some assume the site is serious while others believe it is a satirical commentary on AI risk. The creator acknowledges he was intentionally ambiguous between earnest forecasting and exaggeration for effect about real issues.

Questionable assumptions: Experts argue over the reasonableness of assumptions like a 95% chance of artificial general intelligence by 2060 and a high probability of human extinction soon thereafter. Surveys show a widespread when researchers predict these milestones.

Dangerously dystopian or realistically alarming? Critics argue the site promotes technophobia and alarmism over-hyped threats that distract from real societal problems technology could help address. But others see raising awareness of catastrophic possibilities as ethically responsible.

Fostering fatalism: Some observe the calculator may lead more people into fatalistic attitudes about environmental issues or public policy if human extinction from AI seems inevitable shortly. But the creator intended partly to motivate actions in the present.

So the AI Death Calculator has spurred heated debates about the projections it makes and their implications for public attitudes. The controversies reflect broader disagreements over the societal impacts of advanced AI systems.

Broader Issues and Questions Raised:

While much discussion focuses on the accuracy of the AI Death Calculator’s specific forecasts, the website also aims to stimulate consideration of larger issues regarding advanced artificial intelligence, including:

Technological inevitability? Does the apparent trajectory toward superintelligent systems suggest we cannot ultimately control or shape this advancement to guard against potential catastrophes it could cause?

Moral necessity? If we develop superhumanly capable AI systems, do we have ethical obligations to instantiate such minds given their intellectual potential even if difficult to control?

Ultimate limits of understanding? Does the framework of an imminent intelligence explosion precipitating human extinction reflect hubristic assumptions about the scale of scientific knowledge humans can achieve?

Existential protections? How can we pursue advanced AI capabilities while also strategizing safeguards and controls that could help steer these systems to prevent the annihilation of humanity?

Prioritizing present or future? To what extent should current policies and research priorities be shaped by extreme long-range forecasts around AI dystopias rather than near-term issues?

So while not all assumptions behind the projections of the AI Death Calculator will be accepted, the site provocatively introduces these profound themes about the societal role of advanced artificial intelligence and how to weigh uncertain threats against hopeful promises.

Conclusion:

The AI Death Calculator website offers a striking way to make vivid the specter of catastrophic threats that some researchers believe could follow from progress in developing advanced machine intelligence. By giving people personalized death sentences based on their age, gender, location, and health, the site playfully yet ominously warns how the invention of superintelligent systems could precipitate human extinction in the coming decades.

While reasonable people can disagree over the assumptions and probabilities built into its forecasts, the Death Calculator stimulates important debates on risks that need to be weighed against pursuits of generalized AI. And it raises thought-provoking philosophical issues about the limits of science and technology as well as humanity’s capacity to control the fruits of our inventiveness. Whether frightening, silly, or enlightening, the AI Death Calculator website compels grappling with profound questions about the quest to create technological minds exceeding our own.

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